Hello Again! Gordon Graham here with another opportunity to give you some of my thoughts about the noble profession of the fire service, and, as always, my focus is on the management of risk. And as long as you brought it up, risk management got a “shot in the arm” recently when Captain Sullenberger of U.S. Air fame brought his “Airbus Glider” into the Hudson River on January 15 and did so in a manner that saved some 150-plus lives. 

If you have been to any of my live programs over the last several decades — the event that Captain Sully was involved in falls into the top left corner of the top left box that I call the “risk/frequency” matrix. Truly this event — a bird strike, two dead engines, and not a lot of flat places to land — falls into the category of “high risk, low frequency and no time to think,” the classic aviation HR/LF/NDT.

If you know the rest of the story, the involved captain not only was a highly accomplished pilot, but he also has a side business in the field of “risk management”; and, in fact, preaches what he practices.

Over the next months, his actions (and the actions of his co-pilot and cabin crew) will be examined; there will be a final report, and people will rightfully praise him for what he did during that five-minute window last month. You may hear that what he did is the “greatest feat ever in commercial aviation.” If you do hear that, don’t jump to any conclusions until you read about the efforts of other pilots in similar (and even worse) situations.

Please do not think that anything I am writing here is meant to demean Captain Sully or minimize his accomplishments. I would be overjoyed to fly with him any day. But I would like you to consider what Captain Bryce McCormick of American Airlines did on June 12, 1972, an event commonly know as “The Windsor Incident.”

You can “Google” that phrase and read all about it. There are some fascinating versions of the event. Or you can read James Chiles’ great work, Inviting Disaster, where the event is covered in some further detail. Or you can read the next paragraph, and I will give you the Reader’s Digest version.

AA Flight 96 was going from Los Angeles to LaGuardia with a stop in Detroit. It was a DC-10, and as it climbed out over Windsor, Ontario, at about 10,000 feet, the rear bulk cargo door “failed”; and this caused some major damage to the plane. In fact, it caused the internal collapse of the passenger deck, which severed the cables to the rear engine, rear elevator and rear rudder and put the plane out of control and threatened certain death for all aboard. Somehow Captain McCormick managed to get the plane back in control, and he landed this heavily damaged plane in Detroit and everyone lived.

The fascinating part of this event is that Captain McCormick “knew” this event was going to happen. In addition to being a pilot, he was also an accomplished mechanic; and when he first was introduced to the DC-10, he had some issues with the rear bulk cargo door.  To tell the story here would take too much room, but suffice it to say that he did not like the design. He had a “fear” that someday the rear door would fail, and, if that happened, there would be some major structural damage that might cause a loss of the rear engine, rudder and elevator.

So he played the “what would you do if” game and put himself back into the simulator – a lot – practicing for this potential HR/LF/NDT.  I could bore you with the “constant and rigorous” training he put himself through, but he created a lot of “memory markers” and “behavioral scripts” that allowed him to perform so well when he absolutely had to.

Sadly, about two years after the fantastic feat of Captain McCormick, a Turkish Air DC-10 suffered the same “rear bulk cargo door” failure; and this plane crashed and killed everyone on board.

Now I am on page two of this “Risky Rambling” and have not yet tied this to your profession. So I will now do that. Each of you, regardless of type of department, what your current assignment is, or what your rank is, has HR/LF/NDT’s in your future! And if you have read about the life of Captain Sully, you know that he had over 19,000 hours of flight time in his flying career. 

It all got down to five minutes – five minutes of involvement in this HR/LF/NDT,  and my guess is that he too had anticipated this event would happen someday and constantly played the “what would I do if” scenario in his head ... created the “behavioral scripts,” and when he had to perform, he did.

Now at this point in this “RR," I will remind you that I am not a firefighter. I have never been a firefighter. I never wanted to be a firefighter. I have never even watched “Rescue Me.” So I am somewhat naïve about what your “HR/LF/NDT” events will be. But having some knowledge about what you do, here are a couple of examples for you to consider.

Are you fully prepared to respond to the “firefighter down” call in a structural fire, and are you fully prepared to get that firefighter out safely? What would you do if his/her air alarm were sounding? What would you do if you were by yourself? What would you do if the firefighter were 300-plus pounds with all the gear on? What would you do if there were two downed firefighters, and only one of you?

What would you do if a Cessna 152 dropped into a school yard? What would you do if you lost your brakes going down a grade in a fire truck? What would you do if someone called in a bomb threat? What would you do if someone pointed a gun at you during a paramedic event? What would you do if...?

Amanda Ripley wrote a book called The Unthinkable last year, and I encourage all of you to get a copy of it and read it. Have your kids read it. And your co-workers. And anyone else you care about. The “unthinkable” is out there, and you someday may be involved in one of these “unthinkable” events. If that ever happens, are you fully prepared to act to change the outcome of this “unthinkable” event?

While you are reading this work by Ms. Ripley, pay attention to the name Richard Rescorla. Like Captain McCormick and like Captain Sullenberger, Mr. Rescorla had “anticipated” the “unthinkable” and had a plan on what he would do if and when it happened — and it happened, and he executed properly. I think you will find his story to be a sad one, but an interesting one.

Anyhow, I am on page three of this Risky Rambling, and I don’t want Paul and Ted to get used to anything more than two pages because then the “deviation becomes the norm,” and when I write a two-pager next time, I will get the call that the last one was three pages and how come? So I will end this RR with this thought.

You are a fire service professional. Most of what you do is high frequency, meaning you do it a lot and you have “memory markers” created by frequency. Remember, though,that some day — and I cannot predict when or where or what — you may be involved in the “unthinkable” event; and your multi-decade career will get down to a couple of minutes.

“What would you do if that happened?”  Hey, thanks for reading this brief piece. I will see you again next month, and, until then, please take the time to work safely.

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